基于Monte Carlo仿真的近距平行跑道容量评估研究

摘要

为反映近距平行跑道实际运行特点,建立更加精确的跑道容量评估模型,利用蒙特卡洛方法对近距平行跑道在“类隔离”运行模式下,基于着陆航空器绝对优先原则,离场航空器采用“插缝放行”运行规则的容量建立计算模型.模型以虹桥机场为例,结合机场实际运行参数进行仿真计算.实验结果表明插缝放行下起降比为0.94,符合实际运行特点.将最终结果与虹桥机场历史高峰小时架次对比显示,误差小于2.76架,差异率不大于4.68％.方法能够反映近距平行跑道运行现状,实现高峰服务能力评估,满足近距平行跑道容量评估需求.%In order to reflect the actual operation characteristics of closely spaced parallel runways,a more accurate runway capacity evaluation model is established.The Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the runways capacity,based on the absolute priority of the landing aircraft and departure between arrivals,when runways is in the "quasi-isolated" mode of operation.We adopt the Monte Carlo method to calculate the runway capacity with the actual operating parameters of Hongqiao Airport.The experimental results show that the takeoff and landing ratio is 0.94,which is in accordance with the actual operation characteristics.The final result and Hongqiao Airport history peak hourly comparison shows that the error is less than 2.76,the difference rate is not greater than 4.68％.Therefore,this method can reflect closely spaced parallel runways running status,achieve peak service capacity assessment and meet the needs of close parallel runway capacity assessment.