气候变化对家庭牧场复合系统的影响及其牧民适应

摘要

家庭牧场土—草—畜—人复合生态系统是北方草原应对气候变化的基本单元,研究其适应性是促进牧区可持续发展的科学基础之一.以草业系统论构建家庭牧场气候变化适应性的研究方法,基于问卷调查研究了内蒙古草原10个旗县599个家庭牧场对气候变化的响应过程.结果表明,1)放牧地、打草场、饲料地、购草作为家庭牧场草料供给途径存在明显的区域分异,饲料地、购草之间具有替代效应；2)以干旱为主的极端气候是气候变化影响家庭牧场的关键因子,雪灾、沙尘暴、大风的影响在内蒙古各地呈现分异格局；3)牲畜、草场是气候变化作用于家庭牧场经营的主要介质,而通过土壤、人群、设施等要素对家庭牧场影响相对较小；4)购草、卖畜是牧户应对极端气候的主要适应行为,分别为保畜与减畜策略,比较而言,保畜策略更为常见.研究认为,家庭牧场复合系统对气候变化的响应发生于草畜—经营界面,草、畜2因子是反馈过程的关键节点.%The household compound ecological system is the basic unit which responsed to climate change in the northern grasslands of China, and research on climate change adaptability is necessary to promote sustainable development in pastoral areas. With the guidance of grassland system theory and using questionnaire surveys, the response and adaptation of 599 households to climate change in Inner Mongolia, China were studied. 1) The methods of forage supply which including grazing land, mowing grassland, forage land and buying fodder in households are regionally different; 2) Extreme events, especially drought, are the key factors influencing the household compound ecological system, but there are different patterns of influence from heavy snow, sandstorms and strong winds; 3) Climate change influences the households mainly through pasture and livestock rather than soil, human and infrastructure; 4) Buying fodder and selling livestock are the main adaptive strategies. The response of the household compound systems to climate change occurs at the grassland and livestock-management interface where forage and livestock are the key nodes in the feedback process.