基于 Bivariate Probit模型的土地流转影响因素分析--以江西省为例

摘要

Based on the peasant household data collected from Jiangxi province in 2011, this paper used Bivariate Probit model to analyze the possible factors affecting the land transfer behaviour of peasant households , and explored the possible relationship be-tween land transferring -in behaviour and transferring -out behaviour .The results indicated that there existed a substitution effect between land transferring -in behaviour and transferring -out behaviour of peasant households;the ratio of female to male members in a family, the area of contracted land per capita , the age and the educated years of household head , the value of owned agricultur-al assets, going out to work , and land reallocation were the important factors that influenced households ’ participation in land trans-fer market .%在2011年江西省农户调研数据的基础上，利用Bivariate Probit模型分析了影响农户土地流转行为的因素及土地转入转出行为之间的联立关系。计量结果显示：农户土地转入和转出行为之间存在替代效应；家庭女男比例、人均承包地面积、户主年龄及受教育年限、拥有的农业资产价值、外出务工及土地调整等是影响农户土地流转行为的重要因素。