临夏州“8·10”区域性暴雨天气过程诊断分析

摘要

利用Micaps实时资料和数值预报及物理量产品，对临夏州2013年“8·10”区域性暴雨、冰雹天气过程进行了动力、热力学诊断分析，结果表明：此次暴雹降水过程的大气环流形势为典型的“东高西低”型，过程前期，副高西伸北抬且稳定，进退频繁，导致较强冷空气在副高外围堆积，副高东退时爆发，促使能量释放而造成的暴雨降水过程。综合分析了“8·10”暴雨天气过程，探讨了强降水天气系统的结构特征及形成的物理机制，寻求对预报有指示意义的物理量。%Applying the real-time data , digital forecast and physical-quantity product from Micaps , we carried out the thermo-dynamic diagnosis and analysis of the regional torrential rain and hail storm synoptic processes occurred on August 10th, 2013 in Linxia state.The results showed that the atmospheric circumfluence feature of this storm -hail precipitation process was the typical sample of “high in the east and low in the west”.In the earlier period of this process , the subtropical high stretched out in the west , lifted in the north, and was steady, but it advanced and retreated frequently , which caused the accumulation of colder air in the pe-riphery of the subtropical high .The subtropical high broke out when it retreated in the east , which promoted the energy release and led to the torrential rain process.The author comprehensively analyzed the “8· 10” torrential rain synoptic process, explored the structural characteristics of heavy precipitation synoptic system and the physical mechanism of its formation , and sought the physical quantities with indicative significance for forecast .