针对导弹电子设备故障预测问题,提出了一种基于综合环境加速退化试验(ADT)和粒子滤波的故障预测新方法.首先,不同于传统的ADT方案,仅以单个样本为试验对象,采用步进加速的思想,将性能退化理论拓展为加速性能退化理论(APDT),建立基于电子设备寿命退化速度的加速寿命退化模型.其次,为克服环境应力等测试不确定性因素对预测精度的影响,定义了电子设备退化度的概念,将寿命预测的不确定性问题转化为设备退化度最优估计问题,利用改进粒子滤波算法求解出电子产品动态退化的最优估计值,进而实现设备的全寿命评估.最后,实例说明该方法可行、有效,并大大提高了试验的效费比.%To solve the fault prediction problems of missile electronic equipment, a new method about fault based on combined environmental accelerated degradation testing (ADT) and particle filter is presented in this paper. First, unlike the traditional ADT project, the proposed testing uses one single sample. Based on the idea of step-up-stress acceleration, the performance degradation theory is extended to accelerated performance degradation theory (APDT). An accelerated life span degradation model is proposed based on electron life span degradation speed. Then, to minimize the effect of unstable environmental stress and other uncertain factors, the electron degradation degree is defined. The uncertainties in life prediction are transformed into optimal estimation problems, and the particle filter algorithm is used to solve the optimal estimation value of electronic product dynamic damage. Finally, an example is given to show the feasibility and validity of the proposed method, by which higher ratio of cost efficiency is achieved.
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