针对传统可靠性模型及分析方法无法分析产品在时变环境下可靠性的缺陷,提出了时变环境应力下产品可靠性预测方法.引入比例风险模型描述产品可靠性与工作环境因素的关系,结合加速寿命试验数据,利用极大似然估计确定基准失效率函数及各环境因素协变量回归系数.在假设产品工作环境应力转换时间确定的情况下,建立了时变环境下可靠度分析模型.实例验证了该方法的有效性.%As the stress under which products operate may change with time in most practical applications, and the traditional reliability models and analysis methods are no longer applicable, a reliability prediction method was proposed for products to operate in time-varying conditions. The proportional hazard model was introduced to describe the relationship between reliability and environmental factors. Combined with ALT data, the maximum likelihood estimation was used to determine the baseline failure rate function and regression coefficients of covariant environment factors. On the assumption that the product operating condition transition points are determined, a reliability model can be established. The examples verified the validity of the method and offered new ways of fault prediction and reliability analysis of products operating in time-varying conditions.
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