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Multivariate robust estimation of DCC-GARCH volatility model .

机译:DCC-GARCH波动模型的多元鲁棒估计。

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摘要

Volatility estimation plays an important role in the fields of statistics and finance. Many different techniques address the problem of estimating volatilities of financial assets. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models and the related generalized ARCH models are popular models for volatilities. Multivariate approaches to GARCH models, such as Engle's Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH), allow for estimation of multiple financial asset volatilities and covariances. However, the parameters of the DCC-GARCH model are typically estimated with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), which is greatly affected by outliers. Outliers in a DCC-GARCH model affect subsequent estimation of volatilities by the design of the model. These outliers may also affect volatility estimates of other financial assets within the same set of assets due to the correlated nature of the financial asset estimation.;This thesis reviews ARCH / GARCH modeling and robust estimation and proposes a robust estimation method for the DCC-GARCH model based on bounded deviance function estimation. This robust method of the DCC-GARCH model better estimates the volatilities of a set of financial assets in the presence of outliers. The thesis presents a study of the consistency of the robust method of the DCC-GARCH model along with simulation results to explore the characteristics of the robust method of the DCC-GARCH model estimation. For a better evaluation of the robust method, the thesis also examines the distribution structure of foreign exchange rate data. The thesis also discusses possible future topics and research in this field of study.
机译:波动率估计在统计和金融领域起着重要作用。许多不同的技术解决了估计金融资产波动性的问题。自回归条件异方差(ARCH)模型和相关的广义ARCH模型是波动率的流行模型。诸如Engle的动态条件相关GARCH(DCC-GARCH)之类的GARCH模型的多元方法可以估算多个金融资产的波动率和协方差。但是,通常使用最大似然估计(MLE)来估计DCC-GARCH模型的参数,这受异常值的影响很大。 DCC-GARCH模型中的异常值会通过模型的设计影响随后的波动率估计。由于金融资产估计的相关性,这些离群值也可能影响同一资产集合内其他金融资产的波动率估计。;本文回顾了ARCH / GARCH建模和鲁棒估计,并提出了DCC-GARCH的鲁棒估计方法有界偏差函数估计的模型。 DCC-GARCH模型的这种可靠方法可以更好地估计存在异常值的情况下一组金融资产的波动性。本文对DCC-GARCH模型的鲁棒方法的一致性进行了研究,并通过仿真结果探讨了DCC-GARCH模型估计的鲁棒方法的特点。为了更好地评估鲁棒性,本文还研究了汇率数据的分布结构。本文还讨论了该研究领域中可能的未来主题和研究。

著录项

  • 作者

    LaBarr, Aric David.;

  • 作者单位

    North Carolina State University.;

  • 授予单位 North Carolina State University.;
  • 学科 Statistics.;Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 124 p.
  • 总页数 124
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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