Analysis of the Influence Factors and Future Trend of Grain Production in Shandong Province

摘要

There have been eleven large fluctuations of grain production in Shandong Province since the founding of P.R. China. The ascending periods of the fluctuation were very long with large fluctuation range. Besides agricultural techniques, the grain production of Shandong Province is affected by the sown area, the fertilizer input and capital input. Estimated by the C-D production function model, the land input elasticity to the grain output is 1.41, and the elasticity of fertilizer input is 0.37. Considering the continuous population growth with incessant shrinkage of the cultivated land and regarding the 80% self-sufficiency rate of grain as safety standards, the estimated minimum limit of grain production in Shandong will be 33.09 million ton in 2015. According to this estimation, only by ensuring at least 5.53 million hectares of cultivated land can the realization of grain security be supported.