Analysis of the Impact of Off-farm Employment of Agricultural Labor on Grain Production in Shandong Province and Henan Province

摘要

Abstract [Objective] This study aimed to investigate the impact of off-farm employ- ment of agricultural labor on grain production. [Method] Impact of off-farm employ- ment of agricultural labor on grain production was investigated based on path analy- sis by using data from 200 counties and cities in Shandong Province and Henan Province in 2000 and 2008. [Resnlt] Off-farm employment of agricultural labor affects grain production through agricultural land use patterns, off-farm employment of agri- cultural labor has negative impacts on grain production through multiple cropping in- dex and positive impacts through the proportion of grain planting area. The positive impacts were greater in 2008. [Conclusion] Prerequisite of the positive impacts of off-farm employment on grain production is the substitution of agricultural mecha- nization development and agricultural technology advancement for agricultural labor. Orderly land circulation and scale land use should be promoted to avoid the lack of agricultural labor due to off-farm employment.