Establishment and application of feedback structure model for agricultural supply chains system——Use Gannan Orange as an example

摘要

Agricultural supply chain is a complicated social economic system. We adopt System Dynamics Feedback Responses Archetypes into the Modeling and Simulation Flow Rate in Tree. Firstly, We modeled limits to growth's archetype on the analysis of core dependent variables based on the statistics of agricultural supply chain, from the perspective of reaching the goals of peasant household, intermediate trader and government, we put forward management strategies of eliminating restraint and build responses archetypes. Secondly, we set up 6 rates of bit stream system and controlling variables based on the six core dependent variables of the feedback responses archetypes. Then, we establish 6 rates and variable fundamental in-tree model and its flow graph model. Lastly we conduct simulation experiments through classification and composition to find the effectiveness quantitatively and provide management implications. This new kind of fourstep modeling establishment and application has both important theoretical and practical significance.