Prediction of Dengue Cases in Paraguay Using Artificial Neural Networks

摘要

Dengue Fever is a disease that has grown world-wide in the last years. Several studies show that weather condition is related to the disease, however, as far as we know there is no study in Paraguay that reveals this relation. In this work an analysis of the influence of variables is performed and the efficiency of the neural networks is used to predict the number of disease cases. Thus, this work proposes finding a prediction model of the number of dengue cases with up to 4 weeks of anticipation for districts of Paraguay finding most influential climatic variables. In addition, a variable selection and prediction method that can be used for any geographical region was developed showing promising results.