A Cellular Agent-based Approach Incorporating Spatial Discrete Choice Methods: A Simulation of Future Land-use Impacts of High-speed Rail on Aveiro, Portugal

摘要

This paper presents a cellular agent-based model to simulate the potential land use impacts of the future Portuguese High-speed Rail (HSR) on the city of Aveiro and its neighboring municipalities. The model incorporates a spatial discrete choice method as a sub-model, which estimates land use evolution behavior based on the growth of socioeconomic variables and the increase of road and railway accessibility. For validation purposes, the model is firstly run to test the historical land use change in the study area from 1991 to 2011. After, based on the validated model, an analysis of three scenarios with different HSR station location hypotheses is implemented to estimate the future land use impacts of HSR between 2011 and 2031. The simulation reveals that the introduction of HSR service is able to offer great opportunities for land use development in this area, whereas the station location within the city of Aveiro shows a relatively better attractiveness to the development of new urban fabric and commercial/industrial land covers.