A Cellular Agent-based Approach Incorporating Spatial Discrete Choice Methods: A Simulation of Future Land-use Impacts of High-speed Rail on Aveiro, Portugal

摘要

This paper presents a cellular agent-based model to simulate the potential land use impacts ofthe future Portuguese High-speed Rail (HSR) on the city of Aveiro and its neighboringmunicipalities. The model incorporates a spatial discrete choice method as a sub-model, whichestimates land use evolution behavior based on the growth of socioeconomic variables and theincrease of road and railway accessibility. For validation purposes, the model is firstly run totest the historical land use change in the study area from 1991 to 2011. After, based on thevalidated model, an analysis of three scenarios with different HSR station location hypothesesis implemented to estimate the future land use impacts of HSR between 2011 and 2031. Thesimulation reveals that the introduction of HSR service is able to offer great opportunities forland use development in this area, whereas the station location within the city of Aveiro showsa relatively better attractiveness to the development of new urban fabric andcommercial/industrial land covers.