EVALUATING SUSTAINBLE ENERGY TRANSITION SCENARIOS: INSIGHTS FROM A PARTICIPATORY STAKEHOLDER ASSESSMENT IN GERMANY

摘要

In the light of climate change,governments all over the world need to change their nation’s energy consumption behavior and the energy generation and transmission system in order to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.However,the preferred pathway for transforming the electricity sector and combining it with the heat and transport sector is often still unknown.Some key issues in the discussion on the possibile future energy transformation pathways are the extent of decarbonization of the power system,the degree of decentralization of the energy generation,the intensity of electrification of the transport and heat sectors,or the scope of cooperation on the electricity supply with other countries,among others.The variety of possible technical solutions for the energy transition and the inherent social,economic,and ecological consequences of these alternatives give rise to the question which of these alternatives is most suitable.The discussion is all the more challenging in the presence of a multitude of contradicting opinions of stakeholders.In order to demonstrate the consequences of possible transformation pathways,researchers frequently use energy models to define scenarios for the sustainable energy transition(Repenning et al.2015;Gerbert et al.2018;Matthes et al.2017).However,it is unknown which of the variety of scenarios is preferred by the citizens.In our study,possible scenarios have been designed by relevant stakeholders from various fields,such as from environmental and consumers associations,trade unions,and churches,amongst others.The first scenario represents a conservative,slowly processing energy transition and acts as a reference scenario.The second scenario aims at reaching the Paris Climate Agreements and,therefore,is the most ambiguous scenario of all considered alternatives.The third and the fourth scenario also have high climate protection goals,but lower than the second scenario.Thereby,scenario three is characterized by a more central development of renewable energy sources(RES)and an optimal integration of the energy system with neighboring countries.In contrast,scenario four focuses on a more decentralized development of RES and a high participation of citizens.After defining the scenarios,the same stakeholders define objectives for the energy transition and state their individual preferences towards these objectives.This consensual objective system,supplemented with the subjective assessment of the objectives by different stakeholders builds the foundation of a holistic valuation system for energy scenarios.We use this system to systematically evaluate four different energy scenarios regarding their utility for the considered stakeholders.More specifically,we analyze the individual preferences of the stakeholders to define which objectives are particularly important and need to be fulfilled by the future energy system.Furthermore,we derive which scenarios are most suited for different stakeholder groups and explain why these scenarios are preferred.Thus,the aim of this paper is to give policy makers a structured and robust basis for determining a well-accepted energy transition.