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IDENTIFYING MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT CONFIDENCE INTERVALS

机译:识别关于置信区间的误解

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Although confidence intervals (CIs) have many benefits over null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) they can still be misinterpreted. Identifying CI misconceptions is a first step in designing teaching tools that can be used to prevent or reduce them. I surveyed graduate level students and found they hold several misconceptions about CIs. Many believe there is a uniform likelihood distribution across a CI, with a high proportion of these showing a cliff effect (a sudden major drop in likelihood at each limit of a CI). Many students also misunderstand the relationship between the width of a CI and the confidence level. In this paper I present a taxonomy of CI misconceptions identified by empirical studies, and explore faulty conceptual models that may be the source of the misconceptions. I also propose an educational tool that could be used to confront CI misconceptions, particularly misconceptions about CI distributions.
机译:虽然置信区间(CIS)对零假假设意义测试(NHST)有许多益处,但它们仍然可以误解。识别CI误解是设计可用于预防或减少它们的教学工具的第一步。我调查了研究生级别的学生,发现他们对CIS保持了几个误解。许多人认为,在CI上存在均匀的似然分布,这些可能性很高,这些悬崖效应(CI的每个极限在突出的可能性下降)。许多学生也误解了CI宽度与置信水平之间的关系。在本文中,我提出了通过经验研究确定的CI误解的分类,并探索可能是误解的概念模型。我还提出了一种能够用于面对CI误解,特别是对CI分布的误解的教育工具。

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