Frequent Misconceptions from the Use of Confidence Statements as the Lone Consideration in Reliability Requirements

摘要

The report presents a discussion of the disadvantages of the use of such phrasing as 'the system must demonstrate 95 percent reliability with 90 percent confidence' when the required reliability for the system is 95 percent. Several examples are offered to illustrate how such wording can be misleading. A brief summary of elementary estimation theory is presented. The recommendation is given that such phrases as 95 percent reliability with 90 percent confidence be stricken from all Army documents. (Author)