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Defensive Forecasting for Linear Protocols

机译:线性协议的防御性预测

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We consider a general class of forecasting protocols, called "linear protocols", and discuss several important special cases, including multi-class forecasting. Forecasting is formalized as a game between three players: Reality, whose role is to generate objects and their labels; Forecaster, whose goal is to predict the labels; and Skeptic, who tries to make money on any lack of agreement between Forecaster's predictions and the actual labels. Our main mathematical result is that for any continuous strategy for Skeptic in a linear protocol there exists a strategy for Forecaster that does not allow Skeptic's capital to grow. This result is a meta-theorem that allows one to transform any constructive law of probability in a linear protocol into a forecasting strategy whose predictions are guaranteed to satisfy this law. We apply this meta-theorem to a weak law of large numbers in inner product spaces to obtain a version of the K29 prediction algorithm for linear protocols and show that this version also satisfies the attractive properties of proper calibration and resolution under a suitable choice of its kernel parameter, with no assumptions about the way the data is generated.
机译:我们考虑一般的预测协议,称为“线性协议”,并讨论了几种重要特殊情况,包括多级预测。预测被形式化为三名球员之间的游戏:现实,其角色是生成对象及其标签;预测搬运车,其目标是预测标签;和怀疑论者,他们试图在预测的预测和实际标签之间缺乏缺乏协议。我们的主要数学结果是,对于以线性议定书的任何连续策略,存在不允许怀疑人士增长的预测员的策略。该结果是一个元定理,允许一个人以线性协议以线性协议转换为预测策略,其预测策略是保证满足这一法律的预测策略。我们将此元定理的内积空间大量的弱依法取得一个版本线性协议和表演K29预测算法的这个版本还满足下一个合适的选择适当的校准和分辨率的吸引人的特性及其内核参数,没有关于生成数据的方式的假设。

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