Waterway Risk Assessment Using System Simulation and Expert Judgement

摘要

The Prince William Sound Risk Assessment was a joint project of Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), and The George Washington University (GWU). The system simulation methodology was developed by GWU based on the premises that risk is a dynamic property of a system, and that judgment of experts that have a deep understanding of the system can be used to compensate for incomplete data. The system simulation/expert judgment approach was used to assess the baseline or current risk in the PWS oil transportation system and to evaluate the effectiveness of potential risk reduction measures. The judgment of over 160 maritime experts was formally elicited and structured to provide critical data for the system simulation. The judgment was calibrated using an extensive data base on maritime events in PWS compiled from public and private sources by RPI. The PWS risk assessment found that current system safeguards effectively address significant system risks, but are not optimal. The dynamic interactions modeled in the simulation demonstrate that actions that reduce risk in one part of the system often increase risk in other parts. The ability to identify and to evaluate these risk trade-offs is an essential element of risk management. The PWS risk assessment identified specific interventions that could increase the level of safety of oil transportation in Prince William Sound.