A Risk Assessment Framework for Grade Crossing Accidents and Derailments in the United States: A Case Study of California Rail Network (2008-2017)

摘要

Railways are essential components of effective transportation in most advanced countries. It has a significant influence on national, economic and industrial activities. Despite these benefits, a railway disaster is often very catastrophic. In 2017 alone, the United States recorded an approximate loss of $300 million to train accidents. This loss is accompanied by over 500 casualties with approximately 50 people killed. The state of California has an estimated population of 40 million people with over $2.7 trillion Gross Domestic Product in 2017. Meanwhile, the rich landforms and complex environmental systems create even more complexities for train services and operations, including freight and passenger. From 2008 to 2017, train accidents in California resulted in a loss of $150 million, 563 injuries and 64 fatalities. In this work, the risks associated with trains are examined from several perspectives. California being a large state with big counties, accident data from 2008 to 2017 is examined in the light of probability of occurrence, financial losses, safety implications and risk criticality. The targeted stakeholders for this study include: the Department of Public Safety, the Federal Highway Administration, the Department of Transportation, and multiple railroad corporations. The study identified the significant types and major causes of train accidents in California with Failure Mode Effect analysis; builds a risk assessment framework using appropriate risk methods like spatial Monte Carlo simulations, event tree analysis amongst others to analyze severe accident causes. The analyses is concluded by recommendations to improve safety practices for identified failure modes.