Model construction and empirical study of ARMA-EGARCH

摘要

This paper establishes an ARMA-EGARCH-M model by combining ARMA model with ARCH group models to study securities market volatility appraisal. The results based on examination of measuring indices for forecasting error using mass samples indicate that ARMA-EGARCH-M model surpasses ARCH group models on Shanghai securities market volatility fitting. To solve the fluctuation cluster and continuance, it's suggested to establish a short sales trading mechanism in the market.