Aspects of risk assessment in land use planning: the case study of Tartu

摘要

The purpose of this work was to analyse the problems connected with the risk assessment of emergency situations in Estonia and their relations with land use planning. The research was carried out on the basis of a case study: the preliminary risk assessment of Tartu, the second largest city of Estonia, conducted by the specialists of the Estonian University of Life Sciences. The Estonian Emergency Preparedness Act designates risk assessment as an important task of crisis management, on the basis of which all of the following measures should be planned and implemented. The act specifies two types of risk assessment, functional and territorial. The first involves the ministries and their areas of government, whereas the second concerns the counties and the largest cities and communities. The methodical basis of territorial risk assessment is established by special regulation of the Minister of the Interior. The regulation requires the determination and risk assessment of 15 (or more) different types of possible emergency situations. The outcomes of the risk assessments will serve as the basis for composing crisis management plans and spatial (land use) planning, concerning county plans, comprehensive plans, detailed plans, and also specific building projects. At present, the risk assessments of all of the counties and most of the largest cities in Estonia have been performed, but the possibilities for the application of the outcomes for spatial planning remain uncertain. Our intention was to select and group the scenarios of development of emergency situation in relation with land use and spatial planning, and to draw up proposals for specific planning activities. On the basis of their relations to city area, the 15 types of possible emergency hazards were divided into five groups, which were described and analysed separately. The conclusions concerned the opportunities for taking into consideration the results of risk assessment in planning and design procedures.