Fuzzy Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Model of Chloroform in Swimming Pools

摘要

Chloroform is one of the most prevalent disinfection byproducts (DBPs) formed in swimming pools through reactions between disinfectants and organic contaminants. Chloroform and related DBPs have been a subject of research in exposure and human health risk assessments over the last several decades. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are one tool that is being used increasingly by researchers to evaluate the health impacts of swimming pool exposures. These models simulate the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion of chemicals in the human body to assess doses to sensitive organs. As with any model, uncertainties arise from variability and imprecision in inputs. Among the most uncertain model parameters are the partition coefficients which describe uptake and distribution of chemical to different tissues of the body. In this paper, a fuzzy based model is presented for improving the description and incorporation of uncertain parameters into the model. The fuzzy PBPK model compares well with the deterministic model and measured concentrations while providing more information about uncertainty.