On MA Forecast Model of Target Firms Basing on Chinese Listed Companies

摘要

The paper selects listed companies which were merged or acquired in 2005 as the empirical samples, chooses 24 specific indexes related to financial condition and governance structure of firms. Then the logistic regression analysis is used to establish one forecast model with 73.6 percent general accuracy basing on success rate and another with 75.3 percent general accuracy basing on M&A performance. The study shows that the company with good governance structure, favorable government efficiency, but mired in short-term operation difficulties is apt to become M&A target; furthermore, the operation revenue growth ability of target firm before M&A has positive effect on M&A performance.