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A Logic for Causal Inference in Time Series with Discrete and Continuous Variables

机译:具有离散和连续变量的时间序列因果推理的逻辑

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Many applications of causal inference, such as finding the relationship between stock prices and news reports, involve both discrete and continuous variables observed over time. Inference with these complex sets of temporal data, though, has remained difficult and required a number of simplifications. We show that recent approaches for inferring temporal relationships (represented as logical formulas) can be adapted for inference with continuous valued effects. Building on advances in logic, PCTLc (an extension of PCTL with numerical constraints) is introduced here to allow representation and inference of relationships with a mixture of discrete and continuous components. Then, finding significant relationships in the continuous case can be done using the conditional expectation of an effect, rather than its conditional probability. We evaluate this approach on both synthetically generated and actual financial market data, demonstrating that it can allow us to answer different questions than the discrete approach can.
机译:因果推理的许多应用(例如查找股票价格与新闻报道之间的关系)都涉及随时间推移而观察到的离散变量和连续变量。但是,用这些复杂的时间数据集进行推理仍然很困难,并且需要进行大量简化。我们表明,用于推断时间关系(以逻辑公式表示)的最新方法可以适用于具有连续价值效应的推断。在逻辑上不断发展的基础上,此处引入了PCTLc(具有数字约束的PCTL扩展),以允许表示和推断具有离散和连续成分的关系。然后,可以使用效果的条件期望而不是条件概率来找到连续情况下的重要关系。我们根据综合生成的数据和实际的金融市场数据对这种方法进行了评估,表明与离散方法相比,它可以让我们回答不同的问题。

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