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Causal inference in discretely observed continuous time processes .

机译:离散观测的连续时间过程中的因果推论。

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摘要

In causal inference for longitudinal data, standard methods usually assume that the underlying processes are discrete time processes, and that the observational time points are the time points when the processes change values. The identification of these standard models often relies on the sequential randomization assumption, which assumes that the treatment assignment at each time point only depends on current covariates and the covariates and treatment that are observed in the past. However, in many real world data sets, it is more reasonable to assume that the underlying processes are continuous time processes, and that they are only observed at discrete time points. When this happens, the sequential randomization assumption may not be true even if it is still a reasonable abstraction of the treatment decision mechanism at the continuous time level. For example, in a multi-round survey study, the decision of treatment can be made by the subject and the subject's physician in continuous time, while the treatment level and covariates are only collected in discrete times by a third party survey organization. The mismatch in the treatment decision time and the observational time makes the sequential randomization assumption false in the observed data. In this dissertation, we show that the standard methods could produce severely biased estimates, and we would explore what further assumptions need to be made to warrant the use of standard methods. If these assumptions are false, we advocate the use of controlling-the-future method of Joffe and Robins (2009) when we are able to reconstruct the potential outcomes from the discretely observed data. We propose a full modeling approach and demonstrate it by an example of estimating the effect of vitamin A deficiency on children's respiratory infection, when we are not able to do so. We also provide a semi-parametric analysis of the controlling-the-future method, giving the semi-parametric efficient estimator.
机译:在纵向数据的因果推论中,标准方法通常假定基础过程是离散时间过程,而观察时间点是过程更改值的时间点。这些标准模型的识别通常依赖于顺序随机假设,该假设假设每个时间点的治疗分配仅取决于当前的协变量以及过去观察到的协变量和治疗。但是,在许多现实世界的数据集中,更合理的假设基础过程是连续的时间过程,并且仅在离散的时间点观察到它们。当发生这种情况时,即使顺序随机假设仍是连续时间水平上合理的治疗决策机制,也可能不成立。例如,在多轮调查研究中,受试者和受试者的医生可以在连续时间内做出治疗决定,而治疗水平和协变量只能由第三方调查组织在离散时间内收集。治疗决策时间和观察时间的不匹配使得顺序随机假设在观察数据中为假。在本文中,我们表明标准方法可能会产生严重偏差的估计,并且我们将探索需要做哪些进一步的假设以保证使用标准方法。如果这些假设是错误的,当我们能够从离散观察到的数据中重建潜在的结果时,我们提倡使用乔菲和罗宾斯(2009)的未来控制方法。我们提出了一种完整的建模方法,并通过举例说明了维生素A缺乏对儿童呼吸道感染的影响,以证明这一点。我们还提供了未来控制方法的半参数分析,并给出了半参数有效估计量。

著录项

  • 作者

    Zhang, Mingyuan.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Pennsylvania.;

  • 授予单位 University of Pennsylvania.;
  • 学科 Biology Biostatistics.;Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 184 p.
  • 总页数 184
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:38:23

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