RISK CHARACTERISATION OF SALMONELLA TYPHIMURIUM FROM CONSUMPTION OF IRISH FRESH PORK SAUSAGES

摘要

A second-order simulation model was built to estimate the risk of Salmonella Typhimurium associated with the consumption of Irish fresh pork sausages using the results from a previous exposure assessment model and an Irish consumption database. To select appropriate hazard characterisation models, an appraisal of the current dose-response models fitted from available feeding trials data and outbreaks data was conducted. Using an infection and an illness dose-response model of the exponential type, for an infection end-point, the mean annual risk in an Irish sausage consumer was estimated to be 8.54×10~(-5) (95% CI: 2.41×10~(-5)-2.85×10~(-4)), or 192.8 expected infections per annum (95% CI: 24-695), while for an illness end-point, the risk parameters were lower at 7.68×10~(-6) (95% CI: 2.22×10~(-6)-2.54×10~(-5)), or 18.0 expected cases per annum (95% CI: 2-66). While results of the model highlighted the importance of the consumer education through advise of sufficient cooking and basic instructions regarding cold storage and shelf life, with some 'strong' assumptions, it was further estimated that the fresh pork sausage may have a plausible contribution of 30% to the total cases of salmonellosis within the pork sources.