EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT OF LISTERIA MONOCYTOGENES IN IRISH COLD-SMOKED SALMON

摘要

This study looks at the development of a Monte Carlo exposure assessment model for Listeria monocytogenes in cold-smoked salmon marketed in Ireland. The model was developed to assess both exposure and probability of illness by L. monocytogenes in cold-smoked salmon. Cold-smoked salmon are ready to eat seafood that are normally purchased vacuum packed with a shelf-life, at refrigeration temperatures, of several weeks. The main health concern arises from the fact that the fish is consumed without any heat treatment. The model developed in this study used probability density distributions to simulate different processes and their effect on prevalence and counts of Listeria. The model was developed in Excel with the @Risk add-on package. The mean simulated prevalence of L. monocytogenes in cold-smoked salmon was 21.6 % and the simulated mean number of counts on contaminated cold-smoked salmon was 2.60 log_(10) CFU/g. The model highlights the potential risk to consumers, particularly to immunocompromised individuals. The sensitivity analysis highlights the importance of temperature control during transport and in consumer fridges. It also highlights the need for controlled processing to minimise initial contamination of the product. The model provides a systematic approach to evaluating consumer exposure to L. monocytogenes and enables a closer analysis of the parameters influencing human exposure.