BC Hydro's Power Smart group has been encouraging the use of energy efficientappliances since the late 1980's. Starting in October 2001, Power Smart again emphasizedappliances with the promotion of ENERGY STAR? compliant refrigerators, clothes washers anddishwashers through advertising and point of purchase materials and a salesperson incentive forthe first two products. The promotion lasted until the end of March 2002.The purpose of this project was to determine the impact of the promotion and to provide abaseline against which the impact of future activities could be measured. The evaluation wasbased on a time series of data collected as part of a Residential End Use Survey, and adjusted tomatch industry data (Canadian Appliance Manufacturers Association) on total shipments andENERGY STAR? shares. The evaluation methodology was to use a regression discontinuity model,where sales were modeled as a linear trend and program activity was represented as a dummyvariable during program promotion periods. Engineering algorithms were used to estimateenergy savings.Based on the evaluation analysis, it was estimated that the promotion had resulted in anincrease in sales of 542 refrigerators and 550 clothes washers. It was also determined that therewas no significant change in the sales of dishwashers, which was likely attributed to the lack of asalesperson incentive for this product. However, due to the small data time series (16 quarters),the statistical quality was not as high as might be desired, but this would be expected to improveas more data is collected over time.The evaluation also projected the changing market share for ENERGY STAR? appliances.It determined that the ES share of refrigerators was expected to grow from about 40% in 2004 toover 70% by 2006. Over the same period, ES clothes washers should increase from about 34% ofsales to about 50% of sales and dishwashers should increase from about 50% to about 74% ofsales.
展开▼
