A feedback simulation method with logit model for national pension planning

摘要

In this paper, we develop a simulation method for national pension planning. A key concept of the simulation is that the downside of the payment rate is affected by a decreasing number of children, an increasing number of seniors, slumping economy, and the downside of the payment rate itself. Therefore, we develop a simulation model for feedback of payment rate. We take into account total fertility rate as an index of the decreasing number of children, average lifetime as an index of increasing numbers of seniors, and GDP as an index of slumping economy. We also predict the impact of the policy on the payment rate.