Using Small Models for Big Issues:Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis for Insightful Crisis Management

摘要

The main goal of this paper is to explain and illustrate different exploratory uses of small System Dynamics models for analysis and decision support in case of dynamically complex issues that are deeply uncertain. The applied focuss of the paper is the field of interational safety and security.The need for exploratory approaches is first of all discussed. Different exploratory System Dynamics approaches are then briefly introduced. Thirdly, a typology of safety and security issues/crises -in terms of degrees of complexity, uncertainty and urgency- is proposed. Dif-ferent types of interational safety and security issues for which exploratory analyses may be useful are listed too. And the application of these exploratory approaches is subsequently illustrated on some of these issues, more precisely on (i) an acute micro-prudential financial crisis (the concerted run on the DSB Bank), (ii) an imminent A(H1N1)v flu crisis, and (iii) plausible mineral/metal scarcity crises. The paper ends with conclusions, lessons learned, and a discussion of future work.