Improved Grey Model Base on Exponential Smoothing for Urban Environmental Noise Prediction

摘要

Based on exponential smoothing method, a new grey prediction model (N-GM (1, 1)) was put forward. This method can not only make full use of the available information but also greatly diminish the randomness of deformation surveying data sequential. Then the average slope method is used to improve the background value of grey model, and the original surveying data sequential can be transformed to a regular exponential variety sequential. The mathematical models applied to forecast the regional environmental noise and the traffic noise of Shenyang city in the future five years. The forecast results show that the regional environmental noise and the traffic noise are rising gradually every year, if no measures are adapted the regional environmental noise and the traffic noise will rise to 55.3 dB (A) and 69.9 dB (A) in 2012 respectively. The prediction results showed that the prediction accuracy has been improved quite a lot in comparison with general model and thus point s a novel direction to higher modeling procedure.