Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model for Road TrafficAccidents in Cold Regions

摘要

Traffic accidents in cold regions have both general trends ofrnchange and periodic fluctuation due to the cyclical changes of the climate.rnConsidering that Grey System Prediction Model can reflect the generalrntrends of change visually, and Periodic Extensional Prediction Modelrnmainly reflects the periodic fluctuation, the paper adopts the way of thernGray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model to predict the trafficrnaccidents in cold regions. This model considers both the developmentrntrends and periodic fluctuation of the traffic accidents. Finally anrnexample analysis is given to fit and predict the road traffic accidents inrncold regions, and the analysis results showed that the Gray-PeriodicrnExtensional Combinatorial Model was suitable for the prediction of roadrntraffic accidents in cold regions, and the fitting and prediction accuracyrnwas much higher, which provides theory reference and practical basis forrnthe traffic accident management and control in cold regions.