Probabilistic Slope Stability Assessment of Fresh Bulldog Shale in Prominent Hill Open Pit

摘要

Probabilistic analysis is widely used in slope stability assessment because of its capability to takerninto account uncertainties associated with geotechnical parameters. There are, however, still manyrnunresolved practical issues to the application of the method. One of these issues is the integration ofrnassessments when multiple sets of fractures are considered for the entire slope. In the present study,rnthis issue is addressed within the framework of Monte Carlo simulation. Probability of failure forrnpairs of fracture sets are assessed independently and the fi nal assessment of the probability of failurernfor the entire slope is done using conditional probabilities. Prominent Hill open pit, in particular, thernproblematic fresh Bulldog shale formation, was used as a case study to test the method proposed. ThernSWEDGE program of the RocScience software package was used for the analysis.