A SYSTEM FOR STATISTICAL STORM SURGE PREDICTION

摘要

This system utilizes satellite (12, 72, 66) observations of wind stress forcing and sea level variations and through use of an algorithm (figs. 2-5) generates relationship between long time period climatologies of both sea level and wind stress. The algorithm provides a solution to the problem of generating a linear transfer response function to an under-sampled process and allows wind stress distant in space and lagged in time to affect the sea level variations at all points. The resulting stastistical model allows direct prediction of the storm surge at the climatological observation points given a prediction of only the wind stress field. The sea surface height (SSH) response to each wind mode is determined. For a prediction of storm surge, the predicted wind is decomposed into the previously derived extended empirical orthogonal function modes is summed to generate the total response.