METHOD FOR ESTIMATING PRODUCT OR SERVICE DEMAND BY USING DERIVATIVE MULTIPLE GENERATION DIFFUSION MODEL

摘要

PURPOSE: A product or service demand estimation method is provided to definitely estimate a demand of a new service or a new product by using a derivative multiple generation diffusion model though a prior generation product supply or service is intentionally stopped. CONSTITUTION: The method comprises steps of determining a product or service demand estimation method(301), receiving files of a current generation and prior generations(307), performing an NLS(Nonlinear Least Square) algorithm on the files and estimating a base number(308, 309), outputting the input files and the estimated base number as a graph(310), inputting the base number in the derivative multiple generation diffusion model to estimate the product or the service demand(311), and outputting the result, calculated from the derivative multiple generation diffusion model, as a file or a graph(312). The base number is nonlinear used in the derivative multiple generation diffusion model so it is derived from a nonlinear regression model analysis, for example Newton-Raphson method or Steepest descent method.