Forecasting consumer adoption of technological innovation: Choosing the appropriate diffusion models for new products and services before launch.

摘要

Within the vast literature on various forecasting models, there is consensus that no single diffusion model is best for every situation. Experts in the field have asked for studies to provide empirically based guidelines for recommending when various models should be used. This research investigates multiple diffusion models and provides recommendations for which diffusion models are appropriate for radical and really new products and services before the launch of the innovation. In addition, a forecasting classification grid is proposed.