FORECASTING METHOD FOR SIMULTANEOUS time the probability of acute infectious diseases HUMAN AND BEST DATE VACCINATION

摘要

A method for the simultaneous prediction of time possible acute infectious diseases of humans and the optimal date of vaccination, characterized by a certain x-X1, X2, X3, ... Xn of 12 or more dates of initial applications of human medical treatment for acute infectious diseases carried over for several years, accompanied by fever body, by calculating the time intervals between all the diseases X2-X1, X3-X1 ... Xn-Xn-1 and the arithmetic mean values ​​(dominant rhythms) at intervals, coinciding between GSS d within 8 days, which are associated with 30 to 80% of diseases, prediction of dates of occurrence of acute infections for 1-6 months in advance; the middle interval of 15 days or more between two adjacent projected dates of probable diseases is the optimal date of vaccination, as defined for each person suffering from an average of more than 2 times per year, reduces the risk of vaccine-related complications; to determine hereditary dominant rhythm person, time forecasting its probable diseases and optimum choice vaccination using two formulas: the first is to determine the probability of occurrence of the disease in the forecast period, the second provides the horizontal prediction X, which calculates the probability of disease dates and optimal date vaccination error of ± 4 days: where P - probability of occurrence of the disease; K - the number of DRs that are used in predicting the date of ve oyatnogo disease subject weighting coefficient from 1 to 2, reflecting the percentage of re