Effectiveness of Vaccination Strategies for Infectious Diseases According to Human Contact Networks

摘要

A 'contact network' modeling infection transmission comprises of nodes (or individuals) that are linked when they are in contact that possibly transmits an infection. We here studied infection transmission on contact networks of various degree distributions-scale-free, exponential and constant-under SIRV model assuming susceptible, infected, removed and vaccinated statuses of nodes. Aiming for infectious disease containment within the very early stage of spreading, we computed the minimum transmissibility at which an infectious disease epidemic begins to emerge, and its change according to mass preventive and ring post-outbreak vaccination. In the most degree-heterogeneous scale-free network, the 'super-spreading' by the hubs, or high-degree nodes, allowed epidemics even for low transmissibility. In compensation, vaccination was much more efficient for the scale-free network. We also found that basic reproductive number R_0 defines a measurement of epidemic emergence universally applicable to networks of various degree distributions. These results are significant for public health design.