In the present invention, the state is estimated for the high-voltage power distribution network to obtain the voltage amplitude and phase angle of the 10 kV bus bar at the head of the closed-loop power distribution line, and the effective load at each load point for each closed-loop power supply line is the head of the power supply line. The ratio to the active power in, and the ratio of the invalid load at each load point of the closed-loop feed line to the ineffective power at the beginning of the feed line are selected as input variables, and the multistage cumrant of each input variable is selected based on the historical load data at each load point. Calculation, calculation of deterministic trend and closed-loop current, calculation of multi-stage cumrant of closed-loop current, calculation of cumulative probability distribution of closed-loop current, calculation of limit probability of each closed-loop current, and multiple Discloses a method for assessing the safety of a medium-pressure power distribution network closed-loop operation, including establishing that the closed-loop operation is safe if any of the limit probabilities of is less than a preset threshold. .. [Selection diagram] Fig. 2
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