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A comparative study of real options valuation methods : economics-based approach vs. engineering-based approach

机译:实物期权估值方法的比较研究:基于经济学的方法与基于工程的方法

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摘要

It has been expected that the option valuation theory will play a much more significant role in the real estate analysis. However, potentially because of the need for understanding the advanced financial theories, the real options analysis has not been fully used in the real world. In order to attack this problem, it is highly desired to create a more practical and easily understandable calculation model for valuing flexibility. With the increasing computational power of today, an interesting approach to valuing flexibility arises from the field of engineering systems. This approach does not require the understanding of advanced financial theories, and aims to assess the value of flexibility built into the project design. Although the perspective of this approach may be slightly different from that of traditional real options valuation approach, this approach might be an alternative method as a simpler model for valuing flexibility. The comparative study of the economics-based approach and the engineering-based approach revealed that the latter approach has one critical problem in estimating the value of flexibility; the usage of a single risk-adjusted discount rate leads to either underestimation or overestimation of the real options value. Based on the results of a case study, this thesis proposes to use the engineering-based approach together with the economics-based approach. With its ability of comprehensive analysis and graphic presentation, the engineering-based approach has a great probability to make it easier for average practitioners to intuitively understand the value of flexibility.
机译:可以预期,期权评估理论将在房地产分析中发挥更大的作用。但是,潜在的原因是需要理解高级财务理论,因此实物期权分析尚未在现实​​世界中充分使用。为了解决这个问题,非常需要创建一种更实用,更容易理解的计算模型来评估灵活性。随着当今计算能力的提高,工程系统领域出现了一种有趣的评估灵活性的方法。这种方法不需要了解高级财务理论,而是旨在评估项目设计中内置的灵活性的价值。尽管此方法的观点可能与传统的实物期权评估方法略有不同,但该方法可能是替代方法,作为评估灵活性的更简单模型。对基于经济学的方法和基于工程的方法的比较研究表明,后一种方法在估计灵活性的价值方面存在一个关键问题。单一风险调整后的折现率的使用会导致实物期权价值的低估或高估。基于案例研究的结果,本文提出将基于工程的方法与基于经济学的方法一起使用。基于工程的方法具有全面分析和图形表示的能力,极有可能使普通从业者更容易直观地理解灵活性的价值。

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