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Spatio-temporal analysis to identify determinants of Oncomelania hupensis infection with Schistosoma japonicum in Jiangsu province, China

机译:时空分析确定江苏省日本血吸虫感染钉螺的感染因素

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摘要

With the successful implementation of integrated measures for schistosomiasis japonica control, Jiangsu province has reached low-endemicity status. However, infected Oncomelania hupensis snails could still be found in certain locations along the Yangtze river until 2009, and there is concern that they might spread again, resulting in the possible re-emergence of infections among people and domestic animals alike. In order to establish a robust surveillance system that is able to detect the spread of infected snails at an early stage, sensitive and reliable methods to identify risk factors for the establishment of infected snails need to be developed.; A total of 107 villages reporting the persistent presence of infected snails were selected. Relevant data on the distribution of infected snails, and human and livestock infection status information for the years 2003 to 2008 were collected. Spatio-temporal pattern analysis including spatial autocorrelation, directional distribution and spatial error models were carried out to explore spatial correlations between infected snails and selected explanatory factors.; The area where infected snails were found, as well as their density, decreased significantly between 2003 and 2008. Changes in human and livestock prevalences were less pronounced. Three statistically significant spatial autocorrelations for infected snails were identified. (i) The Moran's I of infected snails increased from 2004 to 2007, with the snail density increasing and the area with infected snails decreasing. (ii) The standard deviations of ellipses around infected snails were decreasing and the central points of the ellipses moved from West to East. (iii) The spatial error models indicated no significant correlation between the density of infected snails and selected risk factors.; We conclude that the contribution of local infection sources including humans and livestock to the distribution of infected snails might be relatively small and that snail control may limit infected snails to increasingly small areas ecologically most suitable for transmission. We provide a method to identify these areas and risk factors for persistent infected snail presence through spatio-temporal analysis, and a suggested framework, which could assist in designing evidence based control strategies for schistosomiasis japonica elimination.
机译:随着日本血吸虫病综合防治措施的成功实施,江苏省已达到低流行的状态。然而,直到2009年,在长江沿岸的某些地区仍可能发现受感染的钉螺,而且人们担心它们可能会再次传播,从而可能在人和家畜之间再次出现感染。为了建立能够在早期检测到被感染的蜗牛扩散的强大的监视系统,需要开发灵敏可靠的方法来识别建立被感染的蜗牛的危险因素。共有107个村庄报告了被感染的蜗牛持续存在。收集了有关蜗牛的分布的相关数据以及2003年至2008年的人类和牲畜感染状况信息。进行时空格局分析,包括空间自相关,方向分布和空间误差模型,以探讨被感染蜗牛与选定解释性因素之间的空间相关性。在2003年至2008年之间,发现被感染的蜗牛的区域及其密度显着下降。人畜患病率的变化不太明显。对于感染的蜗牛,确定了三个具有统计学意义的空间自相关。 (i)从2004年到2007年,被感染的蜗牛的Moran's I增加,蜗牛的密度增加,被感染的蜗牛的面积减少。 (ii)受感染蜗牛周围的椭圆的标准偏差正在减小,椭圆的中心从西向东移动。 (iii)空间误差模型表明,被感染的蜗牛的密度与选定的危险因素之间没有显着相关性;我们得出的结论是,包括人类和牲畜在内的当地感染源对被感染蜗牛的分布的贡献可能相对较小,并且蜗牛的控制可能会将被感染蜗牛限制在生态上最适合传播的越来越小的地区。我们提供了一种通过时空分析来确定这些区域和持续感染蜗牛的危险因素的方法,以及一个建议的框架,该框架可以帮助设计基于证据的日本血吸虫病消除控制策略。

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