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Optimal asset allocation for interconnected life insurers in the low interest rate environment under solvency regulation

机译:偿付能力监管下低利率环境下互联寿险公司的最优资产配置

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摘要

I assess how Basel III, Solvency II and the low interest rate environment will affect the financial connection between the bank and insurance sector by changing the funding patterns of banks as well as the investment strategies of life insurance companies. Especially for life insurance companies, the current low interest rate environment poses a key risk since declining returns on investments jeopardize the guaranteed return on life insurance contracts, a core component of traditional life insurance contracts in several European countries. I consider a contingent claim framework with a direct financial connection between banks and life insurers via bank bonds. The results indicate that life insurers' demand for bank bonds increases over the mid-term but ultimately declines in the long-run. Since life insurers are the largest purchasers of bank bonds in Europe, banks could lose one of their main funding sources. In addition, I show that shareholder value driven life insurers' appetite for risk increases when the gap between asset return and liability growth diminishes. To check the robustness of the findings, I calibrate a prolonged low interest rate scenario. The results show that the insurer's risk appetite is even higher when interest rates remain persistently low. A sensitivity analysis regarding industry-specific regulatory safety levels reveals that contagion between bank and life insurer is driven by the insurers' demand for bank bonds which itself depends on the regulatory safety level of banks.
机译:我评估了巴塞尔协议III,偿付能力标准II和低利率环境将如何通过改变银行的融资方式以及人寿保险公司的投资策略来影响银行与保险业之间的金融联系。特别是对于人寿保险公司而言,当前的低利率环境构成了关键风险,因为投资回报率下降会危害人寿保险合同的保证收益率,而人寿保险合同是欧洲一些国家传统人寿保险合同的核心组成部分。我考虑一个或有理赔框架,该框架通过银行债券在银行和人寿保险公司之间建立直接的财务联系。结果表明,人寿保险公司对银行债券的需求在中期有所增加,但从长期来看最终会下降。由于人寿保险公司是欧洲最大的银行债券购买者,因此银行可能会失去其主要资金来源之一。此外,我证明了当资产收益率与负债增长之间的差距缩小时,股东价值驱动型寿险公司的风险偏好会增加。为了检查结果的可靠性,我校准了长期低利率的情况。结果表明,当利率持续保持较低水平时,保险公司的风险偏好甚至更高。关于特定行业的监管安全水平的敏感性分析表明,银行与人寿保险公司之间的传染病是由保险人对银行债券的需求所驱动的,而银行债券的需求本身取决于银行的监管安全水平。

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    Niedrig Tobias;

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  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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