摘要：党的十九大报告提出了改善住房制度、加强社会保障和完善消费体制等一系列要求,这些热点问题之间不是孤立的,而是存在着内在的联系.为此,基于不确定性视角,将社会保障支出水平纳入分析框架研究发现,住房价格上涨通过社会保障支出对居民消费产生正向影响,与原有住房价格通过收入视角对居民消费产生的效应相叠加,使住房价格对居民消费产生的总效应呈现非线性关系.在此基础上,以地方政府社会保障支出水平作为门槛变量,建立关于房价和居民消费率关系的面板门槛模型,以我国2007—2015年省际面板数据为样本进行实证分析,结果表明:社会保障水平的变化使得住房价格对于居民消费率的影响存在显著的单门槛效应.当社会保障支出水平小于其门槛值时,住房价格上涨对居民消费率有较强的抑制效应,两者之间呈现显著的负相关关系;当社会保障水平超过门槛值后,住房价格上涨对居民消费率的抑制效应明显减弱.%The Report of the 19th National Congress of the CPC puts forward a series of requirements,such as improving the housing institution,strengthening social security and perfecting the consumption system. These hot issues are not isolated,but are intrinsically linked. Therefore,based on the perspective of uncertainty, with the level of social security expenditure into the analysis framework,this paper finds that the rise of housing price has a positive impact on household consumption through social security expenditure, which is superimposed with the effect of the original housing price on household consumption through the income perspective,so that the total effect of housing price on the consumption of residents shows a nonlinear rela-tionship. On the basis of these,this paper establishes the panel threshold model between the housing price and household con-sumption rate,with the level of local government social security expenditure as the threshold variable,and makes an empirical analysis,with the provincial panel data from 2007 to 2015 as a sample. The results show that housing price has a significant single threshold effect on the consumption rate of residents because of changes in the level of social security. When the level of social security expenditure is less than its threshold value,the rise of housing price has a strong inhibitory effect on the house-hold consumption rate with significant negative correlation. When the social security level exceeds the threshold value, the effect of the housing price growth on the household consumption rate is obviously weakened.