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Exchange-rate regime and economic growth: a review of the theoretical and empirical literature

机译:汇率制度和经济增长:对理论和实证文献的回顾

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摘要

The aim of this paper is to examine the theoretical and empirical arguments for the relationship between the exchange-rate regime and economic growth. As a nominal variable, the exchange rate (regime) might not affect the long-run economic growth. However, there is no unambiguous theoretical evidence what impacts the exchange-rate target exhibits on growth. The channel through which the regime might influence growth is trade, investment and productivity. Theoretical considerations relate the exchange-rate effect on growth to the level of uncertainty imposed by flexible option of the rate. However, while reduced policy uncertainty under a peg promotes an environment which is conductive to production factor growth, trade and hence to output, such targets do not provide an adjustment mechanism in times of shocks, thus stimulating protectionist behaviour, price distortion signals and therefore misallocation of resources in the economy. Consequently, the relationship remains blurred and requires in-depth empirical investigation. The empirical research offers divergent result though. A big part of the studies focuses on the parameter of the exchange-rate dummy, but does not appropriately control for other country-characteristics nor apply appropriate growth framework. Also, the issue of endogeneity is not treated at all or inappropriate instruments are repeatedly used. Very few studies disgracedly pay small attention to the capital controls, an issue closely related to the exchange-rate regime and only one study puts the issue in the context of monetary regimes. Overall, the empirical evidence is condemned because of growth-framework, endogeneity, sample-selection bias and the so-called peso problem. An empirical investigation which will consider all those aspects might reveal clear and robust suggestion of the relationship between exchange-rate regime and growth.
机译:本文的目的是研究汇率制度与经济增长之间关系的理论和经验论证。作为名义变量,汇率(体制)可能不会影响长期的经济增长。但是,没有明确的理论证据能说明汇率目标对增长的影响。该政权可能影响增长的渠道是贸易,投资和生产率。从理论上讲,汇率对增长的影响与汇率的灵活选择所带来的不确定性有关。但是,虽然钉住汇率制下政策不确定性的降低促进了有利于生产要素增长,贸易并因此有利于产出的环境,但这种目标并未在冲击时期提供调整机制,从而刺激了贸易保护主义行为,价格扭曲信号,从而刺激了分配不当。经济中的资源。因此,这种关系仍然很模糊,需要深入的实证研究。实证研究虽然提供了不同的结果。研究的很大一部分集中在汇率假人的参数上,但是没有适当地控制其他国家的特征,也没有应用适当的增长框架。同样,根本没有处理内生性问题,或者重复使用了不合适的工具。很少有研究令人厌恶地忽视了资本管制这一与汇率制度密切相关的问题,只有一项研究将这一问题置于货币制度的背景下。总体而言,由于增长框架,内生性,样本选择偏见和所谓的比索问题,经验证据受到谴责。一项将考虑所有这些方面的经验研究可能会清楚而有力地表明汇率制度与增长之间的关系。

著录项

  • 作者

    Petreski Marjan;

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  • 年度 2009
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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