Climate change and uncertainty avoidance in spatial planning: Illuminated through environmental assessment of spatial plans

摘要

Uncertainty is an unavoidable part of spatial planning and related predictions, e.g. of environmental impacts of plan implementation. The uncertainty premise embedded in planning is highly relevant and critical for climate change. But how well is uncertainty handled in planning practice? This paper concerns the handling and non- handling of climate change uncertainties in spatial planning - by using the explicit consideration of uncertainty within the mandatory Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) of spatial plans as an indicator. This paper suggests that uncertainty it not handled very well, and goes on to suggest a set of reasons for avoiding uncertainty.