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Avoiding downward security spirals in Northeast Asia the gradual transition to a militarily 'normalized' Japan

机译:避免东北亚地区的安全下降趋势,逐步过渡到军事上“正常化”的日本

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摘要

The world is on the verge of a dramatic shift in security relations in Northeast Asia. With a "rising China" and a Japan emerging as a "normal" military power by revising the pacifist clause of its constitution (Article 9), many analysts argue that the new century may bring with it increased instability to the region. With this forecast in mind, this thesis explores how the United States should approach a militarily "normalizing" Japan. The primary questions that will be analyzed are: 1) Will the current ad hoc movement towards the revision of Article 9 (Renunciation of War Clause) be the impetus for a downward security spiral in Northeast Asia? 2) What should U.S. policy be towards the revision of Article 9? and 3) Should the United States push for further "normalization" and burden sharing in security relations? This thesis concludes that to ameliorate the security tensions in the region, the United States should implement three policy prescriptions that will increase the transparency and the time horizon associated with this dramatic shift in Japan's military restraints. Thus, avoiding downward security spirals in Northeast Asia by encouraging a gradual transition to a militarily "Normalized" Japan.
机译:世界正处于东北亚安全关系剧变的边缘。随着“崛起的中国”和日本通过修改其宪法的和平条款而成为“正常”军事强国(第9条),许多分析家认为,新世纪可能会给该地区带来更大的动荡。考虑到这一预测,本论文探讨了美国应如何在军事上使日本“正常化”。将要分析的主要问题是:1)当前朝着修订第9条(放弃战争条款)的临时行动是否会成为东北亚安全螺旋式下降的动力? 2)美国应如何修改第9条? 3)美国是否应该推动安全关系进一步“正常化”和分担负担?本文的结论是,为了缓解该地区的安全紧张局势,美国应实施三项政策规定,以增加与日本军事限制的急剧变化相关的透明度和时间范围。因此,通过鼓励逐步过渡到军事上“正常化”的日本,避免东北亚的安全下降趋势。

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    Smith Warren D.;

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  • 年度 2006
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