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The impact of risk on inequality: evidence from the Irish agricultural sector

机译:风险对不平等的影响:爱尔兰农业部门的证据

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摘要

The goal of the present paper is to test the hypothesis that risk has an impact on inequality. Many studies investigating the behaviour of farmers under risk have concluded that poorer farmers tend to reduce their risk by reducing proportionally more their expected gross margin than the wealthier ones because they are more risk averse and less protected against risk. This would be the driving force behind the distributional impact of risk. Here we propose a direct way to test this hypothesis by decomposing income inequality in its different sources in order to understand the importance of risk compared to other factor in explaining inequality. We applied the method to a dataset of repeated cross-sectional data on the Irish agriculture and we found that risk explains up to 20% of inequality once other factors are controlled for. Furthermore, we have seen that this impact has risen over time but that this increase could be stopped by mitigating the impact of risk on farmers with proper risk management tools. Lastly, we observe that this rise coincides with the rise in market risk linked to lowering of price support implemented under the reforms of pillar I of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). It is therefore likely that the distributional impact of risk is going to be high over the next decade because the planned lowering of market supports under the next reform of the CAP.
机译:本文的目的是检验风险影响不平等的假设。许多调查处于风险中的农民行为的研究得出结论,较贫穷的农民倾向于通过比富裕的农民按比例减少其预期毛利率来降低风险,因为他们对风险的厌恶程度较高,并且对风险的防范程度较低。这将是风险分布影响的驱动力。在这里,我们提出了一种直接的方法,通过分解不同来源的收入不平等现象来检验该假设,以了解与其他因素相比,风险在解释不平等问题中的重要性。我们将该方法应用于爱尔兰农业重复截面数据的数据集,我们发现,一旦控制了其他因素,风险就可以解释高达20%的不平等。此外,我们已经看到这种影响随着时间的推移而增加,但是可以通过使用适当的风险管理工具减轻风险对农民的影响来阻止这种增加。最后,我们观察到,这种上升与市场风险的上升同时发生,而市场风险的上升与在共同农业政策(CAP)的支柱I的改革下实施的降低价格支持有关。因此,在下一个十年中,风险的分布影响可能会很高,因为在CAP下一次改革中计划降低市场支持。

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