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Dispersion atmosphérique et modélisation inverse pour la reconstruction de sources accidentelles de polluants

机译:大气扩散和逆向模型用于重建污染物的偶然来源

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摘要

Uncontrolled releases of pollutant in the atmosphere may be the consequence of various situations : accidents, for instance leaks or explosions in an industrial plant, or terrorist attacks such as biological bombs, especially in urban areas. In the event of such situations, authorities' objectives are various : predict the contaminated zones to apply first countermeasures such as evacuation of concerned population ; determine the source location ; assess the long-term polluted areas, for instance by deposition of persistent pollutants in the soil. To achieve these objectives, numerical models can be used to model the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. We will first present the different processes that govern the transport of pollutants in the atmosphere, then the different numerical models that are commonly used in this context. The choice between these models mainly depends of the scale and the details one seeks to take into account.We will then present the general framework of inverse modeling for the estimation of source. Inverse modeling techniques make an objective balance between prior information and new information contained in the observation and the model. We will show the strong dependency of the source term estimation and its uncertainty towards the assumptions made on the statistics of the prior errors in the system. We propose several methods to estimate rigorously these statistics. We will apply these methods on different cases, using either synthetic or real data : first, a semi-automatic algorithm is proposed for the operational monitoring of nuclear facilities. The second and third studies concern the source term estimation of the accidental releases from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Concerning the localization of an unknown source of pollutant, two strategies can be considered. On one hand parametric methods use a limited number of parameters to characterize the source term to be reconstructed. To do so, strong assumptions are made on the nature of the source. The inverse problem is hence to estimate these parameters. On the other hand non-parametric methods attempt to reconstruct a full emission field. Several parametric and non-parametric methods are proposed and evaluated on real situations at a urban scale, with a CFD model taking into account buildings influence on the air flow. In these experiments, some proposed methods are able to localize the source with a mean error of some meters, depending on the simulated situations and the inverse modeling methods
机译:大气中污染物的不受控制的释放可能是各种情况的结果:事故,例如工厂泄漏或爆炸,或恐怖袭击,例如生物炸弹,特别是在城市地区。在这种情况下,当局的目标是多种多样的:预测受污染的地区,以采取第一对策,例如疏散有关人口;确定源位置;评估长期污染的地区,例如通过将持久性污染物沉积在土壤中。为了实现这些目标,可以使用数值模型对污染物在大气中的扩散进行建模。我们将首先介绍控制大气中污染物迁移的不同过程,然后介绍在此情况下常用的不同数值模型。这些模型之间的选择主要取决于规模和人们要考虑的细节。然后,我们将提出用于估计源的逆建模的一般框架。逆建模技术在观测信息和模型中包含的先前信息和新信息之间取得了客观的平衡。我们将显示源项估计的强烈依赖性及其不确定性,这些不确定性取决于对系统中先前错误的统计进行的假设。我们提出了几种方法来严格估计这些统计数据。我们将使用合成数据或真实数据将这些方法应用于不同情况:首先,提出一种半自动算法,用于核设施的运行监控。第二和第三项研究涉及福岛第一核电站意外排放的源项估计。关于未知污染物的定位,可以考虑两种策略。一方面,参数化方法使用有限数量的参数来表征要重构的源项。为此,对来源的性质做出了强有力的假设。因此,反问题是估计这些参数。另一方面,非参数方法试图重建一个完整的发射场。提出了几种参数化和非参数化方法,并在城市规模的实际情况下进行了评估,其中的CFD模型考虑了建筑物对气流的影响。在这些实验中,根据模拟情况和逆建模方法,一些建议的方法能够以几米的平均误差定位源。

著录项

  • 作者

    Winiarek Victor;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2014
  • 总页数
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 fr
  • 中图分类

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