Critical Metals in the Path towards the Decarbonisation of the EU Energy Sector: Assessing Rare Metalsas Supply-Chain Bottlenecks in Low-Carbon Energy Technologies

摘要

In order to tackle climate change, to increase energy supply security and to foster the sustainability andcompetitiveness of the European economy, the EU has made the transition to a low-carbon economy acentral policy priority. This report builds on the first study conducted in 2011 (Critical Metals in StrategicEnergy Technologies), where critical metals were identified which could become a bottleneck to thesupply-chain of various low-carbon energy technologies. The first study concentrated on the six SET-Plantechnologies, namely: wind, solar (both PV and CSP), CCS, nuclear fission, bioenergy and the electricitygrid. Fourteen metals were identified to be a cause for concern. After taking into account market andgeopolitical parameters, five metals were labelled ‘critical’, namely: tellurium, indium, gallium, neodymiumand dysprosium. The potential supply chain constraints for these materials were most applicable tothe deployment of wind and solar energy technologies. In the follow-up study reported here, otherenergy and low-carbon technologies are investigated that not only play an important role in the EU's pathtowards decarbonisation but also may compete for the same metals as identified in the six SET-Plantechnologies. Eleven technologies are analysed including fuel cells, electricity storage, electric vehiclesand lighting. As in the first report, sixty metals, i.e. metallic elements, metallic minerals and metalloidsare considered; only iron, aluminium and radioactive elements were specifically excluded. Graphite wasalso included, reflecting its status as a critical raw material. Where possible, the study models the implicationsfor materials demand as a result of the scenarios described in the EU Energy Roadmap 2050.Consequently, the results obtained in the first study are updated to reflect the data that has becomeavailable in the roadmap. This second study found that eight metals have a high criticality rating and aretherefore classified as ‘critical’. These are the six rare earth elements (dysprosium, europium, terbium,yttrium, praseodymium and neodymium), and the two metals gallium and tellurium. Four metals (graphite,rhenium, indium and platinum) are found to have a medium-to-high rating and are classified as ‘nearcritical’, suggesting that the market conditions for these metals should be monitored in case the marketsfor these metals deteriorate thereby increasing the risk of supply chain bottlenecks. Metals demand inthe electric vehicle, wind, solar and lighting sectors were identified to be of particular concern. As in thefirst report, ways of mitigating the supply-chain risks for the critical metals are considered. These fall intothree categories; increasing primary supply, reuse/recycling and substitution In addition, a number oftopics were identified as possibly meriting further research, but could not be considered within theimmediate scope of this study. These include conducting further studies to look at raw materials requirementsfor hybrid and electric vehicles for a wider range of technology uptake and penetrationscenarios; developing new and more detailed scenarios for the uptake and technology mix of options forstationary energy storage; undertaking similar studies in defence and aerospace; improving statistics onthe contribution of recycling to world production for a number of metals; and investigating the contributionof greater traceability and transparency to reducing raw materials supply risk. Finally, it is importantnot to overstate the bottlenecks due to the risks of raw material shortages for key decarbonisationtechnologies. This is because there are still many years before the large uptake of some technologies andin the coming years, there are numerous options that will become available to mitigate the risks identified.