The (Air) Power to Coerce: The Role of Air Power in Twenty-First Century Coercive Diplomacy

摘要

Coercive diplomacy as a strategy seeks to prevent crises from escalating into conflict, by using a combination of diplomatic measures and the threat, or if necessary the limited application, of force to change a belligerent’s behaviour. This thesis examines the dynamics of coercive diplomacy and the role of air power as a key instrument of coercion.The international response to the Libyan crisis in 2011 is a contemporary case where air power was employed following unsuccessful diplomatic efforts and non-military methods of coercion. In this instance, the United Nations (UN) declared objective was for Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi to end the violence against Libyan civilians, re-affirming his responsibility to protect the population, and subsequently authorising UN member states to protect civilians under threat of attack. When the violence continued, the leaders of the major contributing countries also sought to coerce Colonel Gaddafi to relinquish power.The strategy of coercive diplomacy was largely unsuccessful in the Libyan crisis primarily due to the disproportionate outcome sought—regime change. The combination of diplomacy, sanctions and military force did not result in Gaddafi changing his aggressive behaviour or capitulating, and the air campaign itself did not follow a ‘textbook’ case of coercive diplomacy, as force was applied at the high end of the coercive spectrum from the outset. Indeed, elements of the campaign comprised a limited war.Air power, however, was instrumental in meeting the UN mandate by protecting Libyan civilians from their own government forces. Its application in Libya has reinforced that while military force is likely to remain the coercive option of ‘last resort’, air power has become an attractive option of choice where non-military methods have failed. Air power can be activated quickly, it removes the requirement for a sustained commitment of ‘boots on the ground’, and it can be employed in a precise and discriminate manner.The conduct of the air campaign in Libya illustrated the importance of coalition operations and the risks of an over-reliance on the United States. Most significantly for Australia, it highlighted the challenges that might confront a small air force seeking to employ coercive air power in the future.